India's Population to Hit 1.46 Billion in 2025, Fertility Rate Drops Below Replacement Level

By: WE Staff | Wednesday, 11 June 2025

• India is predicted to have 1.46 billion people living there by 2025 

• India will continue to be the most populous country in the world 

• The country's overall fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level 

The United Nations Population Fund's (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) report, The Real Fertility Crisis, projects that India's population will reach 1.46 billion by 2025, keeping it the most populous nation in the world. India's overall fertility rate has dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, according to the report, which highlights a significant demographic shift. 

This implies that, on average, Indian women are not having as many children as would be required to sustain the population size in the absence of migration. With 68 percent of the population in the working-age group (15–64), 24 percent in the 0–14 age group, 17 percent in the 10–19 age group, and 26 percent in the 10–24 age group, India still has a sizable youth population despite this declining birth rate. This suggests that there may be a demographic dividend if there are substantial job opportunities and policies that support them. 

The report urges a change in viewpoint, moving away from concern over declining fertility and toward the more pressing problem of unfulfilled reproductive objectives. Due to limited decision-making autonomy and limited access to reproductive healthcare, millions of people are unable to have as many children as they would like.  

The UNFPA stresses that the lack of reproductive agency, or the capacity to freely and intelligently make decisions regarding sex, contraception, and family planning, is the true problem, not population growth or decline. With an aging population that is currently at 7 percent and is predicted to increase as life expectancy rises to 71 years for men and 74 years for women by 2025, India's demographics are also changing. According to the report, India's current population of 1.463 billion is predicted to increase to 1.7 billion before starting to decline in about 40 years. 

The report compares the current state of affairs with that of 1960, when India had 436 million people, women had an average of almost six children, and they had little access to education, contraception, and decision-making authority. This comparison is based on historical trends. 

Since then, the fertility rate has decreased to about two children per woman due to advancements in reproductive healthcare and education. Despite these advancements, many women still lack complete reproductive autonomy, and there are still notable disparities across states, castes, and income levels. 

The nation's accomplishments in lowering maternal mortality and increasing access to reproductive healthcare were emphasized by UNFPA India Representative Andrea M. Wojnar. She emphasized that when everyone has the autonomy and resources to make educated reproductive decisions, the real demographic dividend will materialize. She asserts that India is in a unique position to show how economic growth and reproductive rights can coexist.